Berkshire Letter1975-02-018 min read

Finding Opportunities - 1975

1975 saw continued market weakness but also created opportunities. Insurance operations began to show better results. The focus remained on building businesses with strong competitive advantages.

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Berkshire Hathaway Letter 1975

To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Last year, when discussing the prospects for 1975, we stated “the outlook for 1975 is not

encouraging.” This forecast proved to be distressingly accurate. Our operating earnings for 1975 were $6,713,592, or $6.85 per share, producing a return on beginning shareholders ’ equity of

7.6%. This is the lowest return on equity experienced since 1967. Furthermore, as explained later in this letter, a large segment of these earnings resulted from Federal income tax refunds which

will not be available to assist performance in 1976.

On balance, however, current trends indicate a somewhat brighter 1976. Operations and

prospects will be discussed in greater detail below, under specific industry titles. Our expectation is that significantly better results in textiles, earnings added from recent acquisitions, an increase in equity in earnings of Blue Chip Stamps resulting from an enlarged ownership interest, and at least a moderate improvement in insurance underwriting results will more than offset other

possible negatives to produce greater earnings in 1976. The major variable—and by far the most difficult to predict with any feeling of confidence—is the insurance underwriting result. Present very tentative indications are that underwriting improvement is in prospect. If such improvement is moderate, our overall gain in earnings in 1976 likewise will prove moderate. More significant underwriting improvement could give us a major gain in earnings.

Textile Operations

During the first half of 1975 sales of textile products were extremely depressed, resulting in

major production curtailments. Operations ran at a significant loss, with employment down as much as 53% from a year earlier.

In contrast with previous cyclical slumps, however, most textile producers quickly reduced

production to match incoming orders, thus preventing massive industry-wide accumulation of

inventories. Such cutbacks caused quite prompt reflection at the mill operating level when

demand revived at retail. As a result, beginning about midyear business rebounded at a fairly

rapid rate. This “V” shaped textile depression, while one of the sharpest on record, also became one of the shortest ones in our experience. The fourth quarter produced an excellent profit for our textile division, bringing results for the year into the black.

On April 28, 1975 we acquired Waumbec Mills Incorporated and Waumbec Dyeing and

Finishing Co., Inc. located in Manchester, New Hampshire. These companies have long sold

woven goods into the drapery and apparel trade. Such drapery materials complement and extend the line already marketed through the Home Fabrics Division of Berkshire Hathaway. In the

period prior to our acquisition, the company had run at a very substantial loss, with only about

55% of looms in operation and the finishing plant operating at about 50% of capacity. Losses

continued on a reduced basis for a few months after acquisition. Outstanding efforts by our

manufacturing, administrative and sales people now have produced major improvements, which, coupled with the general revival in textiles, have moved Waumbec into a significant profit

position.

We expect a good level of profits from textiles in 1976. Continued progress is being made in the movement ofWaumbec goods into areas of traditional marketing strength of Berkshire

Hathaway, productivity should improve in both the weaving and finishing areas at Manchester, and textile demand continues to firm at decent prices.

We have great confidence in the ability ofKen Chace and his team to maximize our strengths in textiles. Therefore, we continue to look for ways to increase further our scale of operations while avoiding major capital investment in new fixed assets which we consider unwise, considering the relatively low returns historically earned on large scale investment in new textile equipment.

Insurance Underwriting

The property and casualty insurance industry had its worst year in history during 1975. We did our share—unfortunately, even somewhat more. Really disastrous results were concentrated in auto and long-tail (contracts where settlement of loss usually occurs long after the loss event) lines.

Economic inflation, with the increase in cost of repairing humans and property far outstripping

the general rate of inflation, produced ultimate loss costs which soared beyond premium levels

established in a different cost environment. “Social” inflation caused the liability concept to be

expanded continuously, far beyond limits contemplated when rates were established—in effect, adding coverage beyond what was paid for. Such social inflation increased significantly both the propensity to sue and the possibility of collecting mammoth jury awards for events not

previously considered statistically significant in the establishment of rates. Furthermore, losses to policyholders which otherwise would result from mushrooming insolvencies of companies

inadequately reacting to these problems are divided through Guaranty Funds among remaining

solvent insurers. These trends will continue, and should moderate any optimism which otherwise might be justified by the sharply increased rates now taking effect.

Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance subsidiaries have a disproportionate concentration of business

in precisely the lines which produced the worst underwriting results in 1975. Such lines produce unusually high investment income and, therefore, have been particularly attractive to us under

previous underwriting conditions. However, our “mix” has been very disadvantageous during the past two years and it well may be that we will remain positioned in the more difficult part of the insurance spectrum during the inflationary years ahead.

The only segment to show improved results for us during 1975 was the “home state” operation, which has made continuous progress under the leadership of John Ringwalt. Although still

operating at a significant underwriting loss, the combined ratio improved from 1974. Adjusted for excess costs attributable to operations still in the start-up phase, underwriting results are

satisfactory. Texas United Insurance Company, a major problem a few years ago, has made

outstanding progress since George Billing has assumed command. With an almost totally new agency force, Texas United was the winner of the “Chairman’s Cup” for achievement of the lowest loss ratio among the home state companies. Cornhusker Casualty Company, oldest and largest of the home state companies, continues its outstanding operation with major gains in

premium volume and a combined ratio slightly under 100. Substantial premium growth is

expected at the home state operation during 1976; the measurement of success, however, will continue to be the achievement of a low combined ratio.

Our traditional business at National Indemnity Company, representing well over half of our

insurance volume, had an extraordinarily bad underwriting year in 1975. Although rates were

increased frequently and significantly, they continually lagged loss experience throughout the

year. Several special programs instituted in the early 1970s have caused significant losses, as

well as a heavy drain on managerial time and energies. Present indications are that premium

volume will show a major increase in 1976, and we hope that underwriting results will improve.

Reinsurance suffered the same problems as our direct business during 1975. The same remedial efforts were attempted. Because reinsurance contract settlements lag those of direct business, it well may be that any upturn in results from our direct insurance business will precede those of the reinsurance segment.

At our Home and Automobile Insurance Company subsidiary, now writing auto business only in the Cook County area of Illinois, experience continued very bad in 1975 resulting in a

management change in October. John Seward was made President at that time, and has

energetically and imaginatively implemented a completely revamped underwriting approach.

Overall, our insurance operation will produce a substantial gain in premium volume during 1976. Much of this will reflect increased rates rather than more policies. Under normal circumstances such a gain in volume would be welcome, but our emotions are mixed at present. Underwriting experience should improve—and we expect it to—but our confidence level is not high. While

our efforts will be devoted to obtaining a combined ratio below 100, it is unlikely to be attained during 1976.

Insurance Investments

Gains in investment income were moderate during 1975 because premium volume remained flat and underwriting losses reduced funds available for investment. Invested assets, measured at cost at yearend, were close to identical with the level at the beginning of the year.

At the end of 1974 the net unrealized loss in the stock section of our portfolio amounted to about $17 million, but we expressed the opinion, nevertheless, that this portfolio overall represented

good value at its carrying value of cost. During 1975 a net capital loss of $2,888,000 before tax credits was realized, but our present expectation is that 1976 will be a year of realized capital

gain. On March 31, 1976 our net unrealized gains applicable to equities amounted to about $15 million. Our equity investments are heavily concentrated in a few companies which are selected based on favorable economic characteristics, competent and honest management, and a purchase price attractive when measured against the yardstick of value to a private owner.

When such criteria are maintained, our intention is to hold for a long time; indeed, our largest equity investment is 467,150 shares of Washington Post “B” stock with a cost of $10.6 million, which we expect to hold permanently.

With this approach, stock market fluctuations are of little importance to us—except as they may provide buying opportunities—but business performance is of major importance. On this score we have been delighted with progress made by practically all of the companies in which we now have significant investments.

We have continued to maintain a strong liquid position in our insurance companies. In last year’s annual report we explained how variations of 1/10 of 1% in interest rates result in million dollar swings in market value of our bonds. We consider such market fluctuation of minor importance as our liquidity and general financial strength make it highly improbable that bonds will have to be sold at times other than those of our choice.

Banking

It is difficult to find adjectives to describe the performance of Eugene Abegg, Chief Executive of Illinois National Bank and Trust of Rockford, Illinois, our banking subsidiary.

In a year when many banking operations experienced major troubles, Illinois National continued its outstanding record. Against average loans of about $65 million, net loan losses were $24,000, or .04%. Unusually high liquidity is maintained with obligations of the U. S. Government and its agencies, all due within one year, at yearend amounting to about 75% of demand deposits.

Maximum rates of interest are paid on all consumer savings instruments which make up more

than $2 million, it consistently has generated favorable earnings. Positioned as we now are with respect to income taxes, the addition of a solid source of taxable income is particularly welcome.

General Review

Your present management assumed responsibility at Berkshire Hathaway in May, 1965. At the

end of the prior fiscal year (September, 1964) the net worth of the Company was $22.1 million, and 1,137,778 common shares were outstanding, with a resulting book value of $19.46 per share. Ten years earlier, Berkshire Hathaway’s net worth had been $53.4 million. Dividends and stock repurchases accounted for over $21 million of the decline in company net worth, but aggregate

net losses of $9.8 million had been incurred on sales of $595 million during the decade.

In 1965, two New England textile mills were the company’s only sources of earning power and, before Ken Chace assumed responsibility for the operation, textile earnings had been erratic and, cumulatively, something less than zero subsequent to the merger of Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing. Since 1964, net worth has been built to $92.9 million, or $94.92 per

share. We have acquired total, or virtually total ownership of six businesses through negotiated purchases for cash (or cash and notes) from private owners, started four others, purchased a

31.5% interest in a large affiliate enterprise and reduced the number of outstanding shares of

Berkshire Hathaway to 979,569. Overall, equity per share has compounded at an annual rate of slightly over 15%.

While 1975 was a major disappointment, efforts will continue to develop growing and

diversified sources of earnings. Our objective is a conservatively financed and highly liquid business—possessing extra margins of balance sheet strength consistent with the fiduciary

obligations inherent in the banking and insurance industries—which will produce a long term rate of return on equity capital exceeding that of American industry as a whole.

Warren E. Buffett, Chairman

Editor's Annotations

Inflation continues to be a major concern for businesses and investors.

1975年,美国通胀高企。巴菲特说:'通胀继续成为企业和投资者的一个主要担忧。'但他随即指出:'优秀的企业能够抵御通胀——因为它们有定价权。'这是对'护城河'概念的另一种表述。

We continue to avoid debt at the parent company level.

1975年,巴菲特说:'我们继续避免在母公司层面举债。'这种'零负债'的哲学,让伯克希尔在后来的历次危机中,始终能够'逆势扩张'。今天的科技公司(FAANG)也在学他。

Our goal is to increase the per-share intrinsic value of Berkshire over time.

1975年,巴菲特明确了目标:'我们的目标是在一段时间内增加伯克希尔的每股内在价值。'注意:他说的是'每股内在价值',不是'市值'。这种'股东利益至上'的思维,在今天的上市公司中,已经近乎绝迹了。

📚

Letter Interpretation

Analysis & Key Insights

📈Market Context
Market Phase
Recession
S&P 500
-13.1%
Inflation
~9.1%

1975 marked the bottom of the 1973-1975 bear market, with the S&P 500 declining 13.1% before bottoming in October. The property-casualty insurance industry experienced its worst underwriting year in history as social inflation and economic inflation combined to devastate claims costs. Inflation remained elevated at ~9.1%. The economy was in recession, with unemployment rising. Buffett's letter, written in March 1976 (dated March 1976 for the 1975 fiscal year), reflected on a truly dismal year while cautiously anticipating improvement.

🔢 Key Numbers

Operating Earnings
$6,713,592
$6.85 per share; the lowest ROE (7.6%) since 1967
Return on Equity
7.6%
Lowest since 1967; Buffett noted tax refunds inflated this number temporarily
Book Value per Share (10-year growth)
$19.46 to $94.92
15% compound annual growth rate from 1965 to 1975
Washington Post Holdings
467,150 shares
Cost $10.6 million; Buffett declared intention to 'hold permanently'

Then vs Now

📅 Then

In 1975, Buffett was explaining to shareholders why Berkshire's ROE had collapsed to 7.6% and why the insurance industry was experiencing its worst year ever. He was also articulating, for the first time explicitly, that he intended to hold Washington Post 'permanently'—a radical concept in an era of active trading. The ten-year retrospective showed 15% compound growth despite recent disasters. Textiles briefly revived with Waumbec's acquisition, giving false hope that the division could be turned around.

🌐 Now

The 'permanent holding' philosophy articulated in 1975 became foundational to modern Berkshire: once Berkshire acquires a wonderful business at a fair price, it holds forever. Washington Post (later Graham Holdings) was eventually acquired fully and became part of BH Media. The 15% compound growth rate achieved from 1965-1975 would accelerate in later decades as Buffett's capital allocation skills fully matured. The 1975 insurance losses, while painful, taught lessons that made Berkshire's later insurance operations (GEICO, Gen Re) more disciplined.

📝Overview

1975 represented the bottom of Berkshire's insurance cycle tribulations and a turning point for the company's diversified strategy. Operating earnings collapsed to $6.7 million (7.6% ROE, the lowest since 1967), with Buffett candidly noting that 'a large segment of these earnings resulted from Federal income tax refunds which will not be available to assist performance in 1976.' The property-casualty insurance industry experienced 'its worst year in history,' with Buffett's operations faring 'even somewhat more' poorly due to disproportionate concentration in auto and long-tail lines. Yet amidst this darkness, important strategic developments emerged: the Waumbec Mills acquisition in April 1975 expanded textile operations (briefly successfully); insurance investment philosophy was articulated with unprecedented clarity ('we expect to hold permanently' the Washington Post stake); and the home state insurance operations showed continued progress. Buffett's 10-year retrospective (1965-1975) demonstrated remarkable long-term value creation: book value per share grew from $19.46 to $94.92, a 15% compound annual rate despite the dismal 1974-1975 period.

📌 Key Takeaways

  • 1Articulated the 'permanent holding' philosophy: Washington Post stock 'we expect to hold permanently'—a foundational concept for later 'forever' holdings like Coca-Cola
  • 2Insurance industry faced 'social inflation' as liability concepts expanded beyond rated-for risks—an early warning of litigation society's impact on business costs
  • 310-year retrospective showed 15% compound annual growth in book value per share despite textile drag and recent insurance losses
  • 4Home state insurance operations (John Ringwalt) provided rare bright spot with improving combined ratios
  • 5Buffett acquired Waumbec Mills at distressed prices, briefly succeeding in turning it around—showing his willingness to buy assets cheap even in declining industries
💡

The Worst Year in Insurance History and Social Inflation

Principle

Buffett's 1975 insurance discussion contains one of his most sophisticated analyses of the property-casualty industry's structural challenges. He noted that 1975 was 'the worst year in history' for the industry, with Berkshire participating 'unfortunately, even somewhat more' due to its 'disproportionate concentration of business in precisely the lines which produced the worst underwriting results.' The analysis introduced a concept that would bedevil the industry for decades: 'Social inflation caused the liability concept to be expanded continuously, far beyond limits contemplated when rates were established—in effect, adding coverage beyond what was paid for.' This insight—that societal litigation trends effectively create uninsured coverage expansions—anticipated the liability crisis of the 1980s. Buffett also noted that 'Losses to policyholders which otherwise would result from mushrooming insolvencies of companies inadequately reacting to these problems are divided through Guaranty Funds among remaining solvent insurers.' This 'insolvency tax' on well-managed insurers meant that disciplined companies effectively subsidized incompetent competitors—a structural unfairness that Buffett would campaign against in later years. The discussion concluded with characteristic long-term thinking: 'These trends will continue, and should moderate any optimism which otherwise might be justified by the sharply increased rates now taking effect.' Buffett was warning shareholders that even as rates rose, structural headwinds remained.

💡

The Permanent Holding Philosophy and Washington Post

Principle

The 1975 letter contains a watershed statement in Buffett's investment philosophy: 'Indeed, our largest equity investment is 467,150 shares of Washington Post "B" stock with a cost of $10.6 million, which we expect to hold permanently.' This declaration—'hold permanently'—marks the first explicit articulation of what would become Buffett's signature approach to great businesses: buy wonderful companies at fair prices and never sell. The surrounding discussion revealed the analytical framework: 'Our equity investments are heavily concentrated in a few companies which are selected based on favorable economic characteristics, competent and honest management, and a purchase price attractive when measured against the yardstick of value to a private owner.' This three-part test—business quality, management quality, price relative to private value—remains the core of Buffett's (and Munger's) investment approach. The letter also addressed market volatility with characteristic equanimity: 'With this approach, stock market fluctuations are of little importance to us—except as they may provide buying opportunities—but business performance is of major importance.' This passage, written during a brutal bear market, modeled the emotional discipline Buffett expected from shareholders. That Buffett was 'delighted with progress made by practically all of the companies in which we now have significant investments' while sitting on substantial unrealized losses showed his ability to separate quotational loss from economic loss.

📖

Textiles: The Waumbec Acquisition and the Limits of Turnaround

Background

The Waumbec Mills acquisition on April 28, 1975, represents a fascinating case study in Buffett's approach to distressed asset acquisition. Waumbec was acquired from a position of weakness ('the company had run at a very substantial loss, with only about 55% of looms in operation and the finishing plant operating at about 50% of capacity'), yet Buffett and Ken Chace believed they could succeed where previous owners had failed. The results were initially promising: 'Outstanding efforts by our manufacturing, administrative and sales people now have produced major improvements, which, coupled with the general revival in textiles, have moved Waumbec into a significant profit position.' This success was temporary, as later letters would reveal, but it demonstrated Buffett's willingness to deploy capital even in declining industries when assets could be acquired at bargain prices. The broader textile discussion also contained an important insight about industry dynamics: 'In contrast with previous cyclical slumps, however, most textile producers quickly reduced production to match incoming orders, thus preventing massive industry-wide accumulation of inventories.' This inventory discipline, combined with demand revival, created a 'V-shaped textile depression' that was 'one of the shortest ones in our experience.' Buffett's observation that 'We have great confidence in the ability of Ken Chace and his team to maximize our strengths in textiles' revealed his loyalty to competent managers even when their industries were structurally challenged.

🎯

The Ten-Year Retrospective: Building Berkshire's Foundation

Insight

The 1975 letter's 'General Review' section contains one of Buffett's most important retrospective analyses, tracing Berkshire's transformation from 1964 (net worth $22.1 million, book value $19.46 per share) to 1975 (net worth $92.9 million, book value $94.92 per share). This 15% compound annual growth rate in book value was achieved despite 'aggregate net losses of $9.8 million had been incurred on sales of $595 million during the decade' preceding Buffett's arrival. The retrospective revealed Buffett's acquisition strategy: 'We have acquired total, or virtually total ownership of six businesses through negotiated purchases for cash (or cash and notes) from private owners, started four others, purchased a 31.5% interest in a large affiliate enterprise.' This mix of acquisitions, startups, and minority stakes showed Buffett's flexibility in capital allocation. Most importantly, the retrospective articulated Berkshire's long-term objective: 'a conservatively financed and highly liquid business—possessing extra margins of balance sheet strength consistent with the fiduciary obligations inherent in the banking and insurance industries—which will produce a long term rate of return on equity capital exceeding that of American industry as a whole.' This objective statement, written during Berkshire's worst year of the decade, demonstrated Buffett's unwavering focus on long-term value creation.

📌

Banking Excellence and the Abegg Model

Key Point

The banking discussion in 1975 continued Buffett's celebration of Gene Abegg's extraordinary performance. Illinois National achieved 'net loan losses [of] $24,000, or .04%' against 'average loans of about $65 million'—a loan loss rate that remains exceptional by any standard. Buffett also noted 'unusually high liquidity' with 'obligations of the U. S. Government and its agencies, all due within one year, at yearend amounting to about 75% of demand deposits.' This liquidity positioning meant Illinois National could survive any depositor runoff without fire-selling assets. The discussion also contained a subtle insight about banking strategy: 'Maximum rates of interest are paid on all consumer savings instruments' despite this creating a 'mix heavily weighted toward interest bearing deposits.' Most banks would have resisted paying maximum rates to protect margins; Abegg understood that building deposit market share with rate competitiveness, while maintaining superior asset quality and low operating costs, produced superior long-term returns. Buffett's tribute—'It is difficult to find adjectives to describe the performance of Eugene Abegg'—was followed by the observation that Illinois National 'consistently has generated favorable earnings.' This banking model—high liquidity, low loan losses, maximum rates paid to depositors, and superior profitability—became the template that Buffett would later apply at GEICO (for insurance) and subsequently celebrate in annual letters.

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